The Washington Commanders may have only one win in their last four games, but they do have the respect of the Philadelphia Eagles.
Washington has put up a fight against its NFC East rivals in recent run-ins, going 3-4 straight up in the last seven matchups but boasting a 4-2-1 spread mark in those games.
The Commanders stayed within the 10-point line when these foes faced off in Week 4, with the Eagles needing overtime to avoid an outright upset.
With the series swinging to D.C., the NFL odds have Philadelphia laying just shy of a touchdown on the road in Week 8.
I investigate this spread and Over/Under total for this divisional battle and give my free NFL picks for the Eagles vs. Commanders on October 29.
Eagles vs Commanders odds
Eagles vs Commanders predictions
Sam Howell wants him and the Washington Commanders to fix their sack problems. And who could blame him?
The Washington quarterback has absorbed a league-high 40 sacks through seven games — a dozen more sacks than the next aching QB — for an average of almost six QB kills per game. The fact Howell is still under center, let alone eating solids, at this point borders on miraculous.
Howell was producing respectable numbers despite taking all those hits, but his output has dimmed the last two outings. He’s thrown for yardage totals of 151 and 249 while completing only 36 of 65 throws (55%) with his average yards per attempt hovering just above six yards a throw.
Howell was sacked five times against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4 but hung in there to complete 29 of 41 passes for 290 yards in an overtime loss. His Week 8 passing yards prop in this second meeting with Philly has his number at 237.5 Over/Under, which is a tick up from his closing total of 225.5 yards against the Giants last weekend.
So how does Howell fix the sack problems? For one, don’t just stand there.
Howell has a bad habit of hanging on to the ball too long. According to Vic Tafur of The Athletic, 20 of his 40 sacks have occurred on plays that lasted 3.5 seconds or longer. His offensive line has actually been serviceable, ranked 14th in pass block win rate, but could be down starting left guard Saahdiq Charles (questionable) after he left Week 7 with a calf strain.
Howell admitted he needs to get rid of the ball quicker and that means less time for bigger plays to develop. Philadelphia is one of the best teams at generating pressure with just the front four, owning the sixth-highest pressure rate along with 24 total sacks.
That leaves the Eagles linebackers in coverage and able to close in on any shorter throws. Philly is a very sound tackling team that rarely misses tackles and ranks seventh lowest in yards allowed per completion. On top of the smothering Eagles’ defense, their offense can take all the air out of their counterparts as well.
We’ve seen the Eagles drag teams into the mud in the second half of their recent games, slowing down the tempo and going on extended drives which leaves opponents with few possessions in the final 30 minutes.
The last three QBs to face Philly have played well below their passing yards prop, with Matthew Stafford, Zach Wilson, and Tua Tagovailoa going Under by an average of more than 41 yards in those showings.
Philadelphia is the top time-of-possession team in the land and Howell and the Commanders’ offense may not get much of an opportunity to make gains, considering the bigger spread calls for a stronger performance from Philly’s offense.
Howell’s player projections for Week 8 do range from as low as 210 yards to a ceiling of 241.5 but most models come in Under his passing yards prop of 237.5 yards — with my number set at 226.5.
My best bet: Sam Howell Under 237.5 Passing Yards (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Eagles vs Commanders same-game parlay
Howell Under 237.5 Passing YdsHurts Over 1.5 passing TDsHighest scoring half: 1H
+650 at bet365
Howell faces a disruptive defense and he’ll be settling for short quick throws when he does get to touch the ball, keeping his yardage down.
With Hurts nursing a bad knee, he’ll look to throw more. That includes in the red zone, where he’s usually a threat to run. The Commanders give up a ton of passing yards and the second-most passing TDs.
Philadelphia ranks seventh in first-half scoring and then hits slow motion in the second half, drawing out drives and wearing down opponents. Philly is 5-2 O/U in 1H and 2-5 O/U in 2H.
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Eagles vs Commanders spread and Over/Under analysis
The look-ahead line before the events of Week 7 listed Philadelphia as low as -5.5 on the road this weekend.
After the Eagles dropped the Miami Dolphins on Sunday night and the Commanders got roughed up by the New York Giants, this official Week 8 opener hit the board at Philly -6.5 at most books. There are sparse touchdown spreads across the industry as of Thursday morning.
According to Covers Consensus, 70% of picks are siding with the road favorite.
Anchoring this spread under the touchdown are injury concerns for Hurts. He sported a knee brace in the second half of Sunday’s game with the Fins and that injury could slow his ability to break off big runs. Philadelphia head coach Nick Sirianni told the media he’s confident Hurts will play in Week 8.
The Eagles also have a tricky situational spot with this trip to the DMV, having come off a heavily hype Sunday Night Football victory over Miami and hosting the Dallas Cowboys next weekend. That does set up potential letdown/look-ahead spots, but Philadelphia is not taking Washington lightly after their last meeting.
Working for the Eagles is a terrible Commanders’ defense. They sit 26th in both Defensive DVOA and EPA allowed per play on the season — two popular advanced metrics — and have been especially soft against the passing game. Washington allows an average depth of target of 9.7 yards and 7.4 yards per pass attempt.
While the Philadelphia attack is rooted in the run, those shorter schemes set up the Eagles for big plays over the top. As for Washington’s offense, it needs to keep Howell clean if it wants a shot to keep pace with the Eagles.
The look-ahead Over/Under total for this NFC East encounter was as high as 47 points prior to Week 7, however, it opened at 45 points and has slid as far as 43.5 points as of Thursday morning.
Concerns about Hurts’ mobility are driving this number down, as his ability to make plays with his legs is a big part of Philadelphia’s playbook along with improvisation when the offense breaks down.
The Eagles are 3-4 Over/Under, having played Under the total in three straight games heading into Week 8. The Commanders enter this game with a similar 3-4 O/U count and have played Under in their last two games.
These rivals have gone 6-4 Over/Under in their last 10 head-to-head meetings, with Week 4’s 34-31 final score in overtime topping the closing total of 42.5 points.
